Author Archives: camharvey

One Year After Lehman

There is a lot of finger pointing going on one year after Lehman declared bankruptcy. Most of those fingers are pointing to Lehman and the way the bankruptcy was handled. However, that is a very simplistic view of what happened … Continue reading

The Eye of the Hurricane

 Given the decrease job losses and other favorable (or less bad) news, it appears as if the economic storm is abating — or is it the calm that you feel when the eye of the hurricane passes over? There is … Continue reading

The Prime Dilemma

Courtesy of flickr/Jeff Turner

Just because the unemployment rate dropped from 9.5% to 9.4% does not mean we are out of danger. This is how I think the economy will unfold. The scenario is consistent with what I have been posting for the last … Continue reading

Systemic Risk Factor #1: Jobs

On June 19, 2009, a premiere economic consulting firm (not to be named) forecasted a job loss of 275,000 in June. To me, this seemed odd. The May drop of “only” 345,000 jobs (unrevised) seemed like noisy data. There was … Continue reading

The Fundamentals are Fundamentally Troubling

The Duke-CFO Survey was released today and the news is grim. One of the big challenges is to reconcile the growth in confidence against the hard data. Consumers as well as CFOs are more confident. However, our survey shows that … Continue reading

Moral Hazard Everywhere

Here are my talking points for my Fox Business News interview. Watch my interview. Why should all the bailout money be focused on financial institutions? It is seems a matter of fact but no one has really challenged the logic. … Continue reading

Reflecting on the Stress Tests

Most of the reporting on the stress test focused on the number of banks passing the test and the doable amount of capital the failing banks needed to raise. The tough question was not asked: if the stress test wasn’t … Continue reading

Four interviews

Obama scorecard President Obama means well and is doing a great job in many areas. However, I fear that we are perpetuating the same policies of the previous administration when it comes to the financial sector. It is simply not … Continue reading

Green Shoots and Agent Orange

Agent Orange

At best, we have seen a pause in the economic decline. It is too early to call a trough. Surging unemployment will act like Agent Orange on those “green shoots”. While we have every reason to be worried about a … Continue reading

The Public-Private Investment Voodoo

Image courtesy of Thompson

Each of the three programs announced by the Secretary of the Treasury today has the same theme: the private investor has a limited downside and a huge upside – the American taxpayer bears almost all the downside and gets shafted … Continue reading