Flukes and Snake Oil

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I have just posted a new paper on a fundamental problem that all scientists face: how do you evaluate whether a discovery is true or just a fluke? We are accustomed to using a “two sigma” rule. If the effect … Continue reading


Most Claims of Financial Product Outperformance are False

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Q: Investors often rely on financial research when developing strategies. Your recent findings suggest they should be wary. What did you find? Campbell Harvey: My paper is about how we conduct research as both academics and practitioners. I was inspired … Continue reading


Duke Bitcoin Conference

Here is a link to the panel discussion from Duke Bitcoin conference: Jon Hilsenrath from WSJ, Eric Martindale of Bitpay, and me: http://youtu.be/PSQxOT7Kfxc. Also my cryptofinance paper can be downloaded here.


Three intro videos on Bitcoin

I recently shot three intro videos on the topic of Bitcoin. The idea is to understand the basics. I devoted a considerable amount of my International Finance course to cryptofinance. I have a detailed slide deck that is available on … Continue reading


Roman Centurions and the Price of Gold Today

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On August 23, 2011, the price of gold reached $1,913.50. Today the price is $1,450 – a drop of over 25%. What is going on? Why should we care?


The Downgrade of France

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On November 19, 2012, Moody’s downgraded France one notch from Aaa to Aa1. There are two key questions: why did it take so long? and why only downgrade one notch?


Four New Videos Posted

I just posted four new videos to my youtube channel, The Garden of Econ. The videos are from a live session that dealt with the state of the economy, the fiscal cliff, and the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fiscal Cliff, … Continue reading


QE3 is a Mistake

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The Fed made a mistake today in launching QE3. This is not just my opinion. It is the overwhelming opinion of America’s CFOs. In the Duke University-CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey released September 10, 2012, we asked a key … Continue reading


CFOs: Lower Rates via QE3 Will Not Spur Corporate Investment

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I hope members of the FOMC will read this before their meeting on Thursday. The Duke-CFO Survey, released on September 11, 2012, provides sharp, new evidence that QE3 will not stimulate economic growth. CFOs clearly tell us (647 of 667 … Continue reading


QE Won’t Work This Time

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There are two upcoming FOMC meetings: July 31-August 1, 2012 and September 12-13, 2012. With high likelihood, we will see another round of Quantitative Easing – or QE. Economists are split as to whether there would be any real benefit … Continue reading