Author Archives: camharvey

Hold On!

Campbell Harvey analyzes the recent economic data and what it means for the U.S. longer term economic growth prospects. Continue reading

The Cult of Bailout

  What single word best characterizes policy responses in this on-going financial crisis? “BAILOUT”. It goes something like this. You take a lot of risk and reap lots of rewards (be it in pay, bonus, or social programs). You get … Continue reading

Hockey Stick or a Plank?

“Only” 36,000 jobs lost in February. That is relatively good news. The storyline was the following. Given all the snow, we should have lost more jobs. 36,000 was a relatively good number because if there was no snow we would … Continue reading

Bombs Away

Risk has greatly increased this week. There are two reasons. First, the Euro-bomb could explode anytime. Second, the U.S. government dropped a bomb in telling us that the employment losses during the current recession are far worse than people had … Continue reading

Cleansing and Reforming our Financial System

Why don’t we just admit that the current financial and regulatory system is dysfunctional? We face two fundamental problems. First, we need to clean the financial system — close weak banks more aggressively, encourage bankruptcies/foreclosures, and free good assets held … Continue reading

Navigating the Jobs Morass

The economy is in much more serious trouble than news reports, policy makers and pundits might lead you to believe. Continue reading

Is it sustainable?

There are two key questions: (1) is the improvement in the job picture sustainable and (2) if it is, how long will it take get back where we started in December 2007? While there is considerable disagreement in terms of … Continue reading

The 10-Handle

Amazing the difference one day makes in the employment outlook. Yesterday, the market shot up because “only” 512,000 applied for initial claims — down from 532,000 the previous week. We saw banners: “Employment Situation Improvement,” “We Have Turned the Corner”, … Continue reading

Mission Accomplished?

Don’t be misled by the 3.5% GDP growth in the third quarter. Continue reading

Pothole or Ditch?


Is anybody listening out there? Those ‘in the know’ expected 180,000 job losses. Some thought 150,000. Optimists thought job gains. In the end, we bled 283,000 jobs. It was no surprise to me. The message has been clear in the … Continue reading