Tag Archives: Unemployment

QE3 is a Mistake


The Fed made a mistake today in launching QE3. This is not just my opinion. It is the overwhelming opinion of America’s CFOs. In the Duke University-CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey released September 10, 2012, we asked a key … Continue reading

New videos posted

I have just posted a number of videos that deal with current global macro events. They can be viewed on the gardenofecon youtube channel here. Will the austerity measures in Greece lead to a breakdown in civil society that breaks … Continue reading

Recession Calculus?


  It doesn’t feel like the recession is over. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER announced on September 20, 2010 that the recession officially ended in June 2009. The Committee looked at a number of indicators. This is … Continue reading

Hockey Stick or a Plank?

“Only” 36,000 jobs lost in February. That is relatively good news. The storyline was the following. Given all the snow, we should have lost more jobs. 36,000 was a relatively good number because if there was no snow we would … Continue reading

Bombs Away

Risk has greatly increased this week. There are two reasons. First, the Euro-bomb could explode anytime. Second, the U.S. government dropped a bomb in telling us that the employment losses during the current recession are far worse than people had … Continue reading

Navigating the Jobs Morass

The economy is in much more serious trouble than news reports, policy makers and pundits might lead you to believe. Continue reading

Is it sustainable?

There are two key questions: (1) is the improvement in the job picture sustainable and (2) if it is, how long will it take get back where we started in December 2007? While there is considerable disagreement in terms of … Continue reading

The 10-Handle

Amazing the difference one day makes in the employment outlook. Yesterday, the market shot up because “only” 512,000 applied for initial claims — down from 532,000 the previous week. We saw banners: “Employment Situation Improvement,” “We Have Turned the Corner”, … Continue reading

The Eye of the Hurricane

 Given the decrease job losses and other favorable (or less bad) news, it appears as if the economic storm is abating — or is it the calm that you feel when the eye of the hurricane passes over? There is … Continue reading

Systemic Risk Factor #1: Jobs

On June 19, 2009, a premiere economic consulting firm (not to be named) forecasted a job loss of 275,000 in June. To me, this seemed odd. The May drop of “only” 345,000 jobs (unrevised) seemed like noisy data. There was … Continue reading