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Author Archives: camharvey
AIG and Faux Transparency
AIG disclosed some of the firms that benefited from the government bailout. Essentially, the government money was largely used to pay off other firms. I have a few comments. 1. AIG’s customers were either using AIG for hedging positions or … Continue reading
Hemorrhaging Jobs
The losses are staggering. If the pace of January and February continued through the year, we would lose 8.4 million jobs in 2009. That is unlikely, but it will be ugly. Consider the following facts. The percentage job losses have … Continue reading
Posted in Finance
Tagged Add new tag, Campbell Harvey, Financial Crisis, Stress Test, Unemployment
4 Comments
That Sinking Feeling
AIG is back to the trough for another $30 billion. We already gave them $150 billion. AIG — supposedly a firm in the insurance business — got into trouble taking an astounding $450B unhedged bet in the Credit Default Swap … Continue reading
That’s Not a Stress Test
We finally got the information on the stress tests. The government will consider two scenarios: baseline and worst case. The goal of the stress test is to see if banks have the capital to weather a darker storm. However, and … Continue reading
Taxpayer=Loser
You hear the buzz about the nationalization of Citi? What does this mean? The U.S. government has dropped $45 billion of cash on Citi and another $250b in debt backstops (guarantees). There is talk of converting some of the $45b … Continue reading
The Treasury Fiasco – 3 Video Blogs
Here are three new video blogs. 1) Bank CEOs Testify before Congress Eight bank CEOs appeared before Congress on February 11, 2009 to explain how their institutions used the TARP funds they received in 2008. I comment on their testimony … Continue reading
Fragile International Banks
The international banking system is at great risk in the current environment. This week Fortis shareholders rejected a takeover offer. This puts the whole country of Beligium at risk. Fortis’ assets are more than 200% of the GDP of Beligium. … Continue reading
The Ghost of Paulson-Past
What we saw yesterday was more of the same. I was flabbergasted that the plan was so light on details. They have had 3 months to put something together and the best they could deliver is a 7-page fact sheet. … Continue reading
Posted in Finance
Tagged Campbell Harvey, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis, Geithner, PPP, TALF, TARP, Treasury
1 Comment
The Long-Term Cost of the Credit Crisis
Many economists argue that recessions are a good thing. How is that possible? Well, recessions give companies the excuse to lay off unproductive workers – both blue and white collar and make other tough decisions that make the firm stronger … Continue reading
Fed Running Out of Bullets
“Fed To Hold Rates Near Zero” is the news headline today. It is not really news. What were they supposed to do? They can’t increase the rates. Zero is as low as you can go. There were about six notable … Continue reading
Posted in Finance
Tagged Add new tag, Campbell Harvey, Fed Funds, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis 2009
2 Comments