Risk has greatly increased this week. There are two reasons. First, the Euro-bomb could explode anytime. Second, the U.S. government dropped a bomb in telling us that the employment losses during the current recession are far worse than people had … Continue reading
Why don’t we just admit that the current financial and regulatory system is dysfunctional? We face two fundamental problems. First, we need to clean the financial system — close weak banks more aggressively, encourage bankruptcies/foreclosures, and free good assets held … Continue reading
The economy is in much more serious trouble than news reports, policy makers and pundits might lead you to believe. Continue reading
There are two key questions: (1) is the improvement in the job picture sustainable and (2) if it is, how long will it take get back where we started in December 2007? While there is considerable disagreement in terms of … Continue reading
Amazing the difference one day makes in the employment outlook. Yesterday, the market shot up because “only” 512,000 applied for initial claims — down from 532,000 the previous week. We saw banners: “Employment Situation Improvement,” “We Have Turned the Corner”, … Continue reading
Don’t be misled by the 3.5% GDP growth in the third quarter. Continue reading
Is anybody listening out there? Those ‘in the know’ expected 180,000 job losses. Some thought 150,000. Optimists thought job gains. In the end, we bled 283,000 jobs. It was no surprise to me. The message has been clear in the … Continue reading
There is a lot of finger pointing going on one year after Lehman declared bankruptcy. Most of those fingers are pointing to Lehman and the way the bankruptcy was handled. However, that is a very simplistic view of what happened … Continue reading
Given the decrease job losses and other favorable (or less bad) news, it appears as if the economic storm is abating — or is it the calm that you feel when the eye of the hurricane passes over? There is … Continue reading
Just because the unemployment rate dropped from 9.5% to 9.4% does not mean we are out of danger. This is how I think the economy will unfold. The scenario is consistent with what I have been posting for the last … Continue reading
