Systemic Risk Factor #1: Jobs

On June 19, 2009, a premiere economic consulting firm (not to be named) forecasted a job loss of 275,000 in June. To me, this seemed odd. The May drop of “only” 345,000 jobs (unrevised) seemed like noisy data. There was … Continue reading →

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Posted on July 3, 2009 by camharvey

The Fundamentals are Fundamentally Troubling

The Duke-CFO Survey was released today and the news is grim. One of the big challenges is to reconcile the growth in confidence against the hard data. Consumers as well as CFOs are more confident. However, our survey shows that … Continue reading →

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Posted on June 3, 2009 by camharvey

Moral Hazard Everywhere

Here are my talking points for my Fox Business News interview. Watch my interview. Why should all the bailout money be focused on financial institutions? It is seems a matter of fact but no one has really challenged the logic. … Continue reading →

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Posted on May 27, 2009 by camharvey

Reflecting on the Stress Tests

Most of the reporting on the stress test focused on the number of banks passing the test and the doable amount of capital the failing banks needed to raise. The tough question was not asked: if the stress test wasn’t … Continue reading →

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Posted on May 8, 2009 by camharvey

Four interviews

Obama scorecard President Obama means well and is doing a great job in many areas. However, I fear that we are perpetuating the same policies of the previous administration when it comes to the financial sector. It is simply not … Continue reading →

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Posted on May 5, 2009 by camharvey

Green Shoots and Agent Orange

Agent Orange

At best, we have seen a pause in the economic decline. It is too early to call a trough. Surging unemployment will act like Agent Orange on those “green shoots”. While we have every reason to be worried about a … Continue reading →

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Posted on April 29, 2009 by camharvey

The Public-Private Investment Voodoo

Image courtesy of AllPosters.com/J. Thompson

Each of the three programs announced by the Secretary of the Treasury today has the same theme: the private investor has a limited downside and a huge upside – the American taxpayer bears almost all the downside and gets shafted … Continue reading →

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Posted on March 23, 2009 by camharvey

AIG and Faux Transparency

Image courtesy of flickr/John Wardell

AIG disclosed some of the firms that benefited from the government bailout. Essentially, the government money was largely used to pay off other firms. I have a few comments. 1. AIG’s customers were either using AIG for hedging positions or … Continue reading →

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Posted on March 16, 2009 by camharvey

Hemorrhaging Jobs

The losses are staggering. If the pace of January and February continued through the year, we would lose 8.4 million jobs in 2009. That is unlikely, but it will be ugly. Consider the following facts. The percentage job losses have … Continue reading →

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Posted on March 6, 2009 by camharvey

That Sinking Feeling

Image courtesy of flickr/David Wild

AIG is back to the trough for another $30 billion. We already gave them $150 billion. AIG — supposedly a firm in the insurance business — got into trouble taking an astounding $450B unhedged bet in the Credit Default Swap … Continue reading →

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Posted on March 2, 2009 by camharvey