Tag Archives: Campbell Harvey

Unemployment and Recessions

“The worst job numbers since 1945”, we heard from CNN this morning. Well, that is not true. Today is different from 1945 for two reasons. First, our population is much larger. Second, there was an important technical factor — WWII … Continue reading →

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Posted on January 9, 2009 by camharvey

Fed Loads Cutlery into the Cannons

In a ‘historic’ move, the Fed slashes the Fed Funds rate 75bp. The new rate is only 25bp. Basically, zero interest rates. My opinion … this is no big deal. See my interview on BNN on this news. However, the … Continue reading →

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Posted on December 16, 2008 by camharvey

The Freefall – A View from Main Street

Duke University/CFO Magazine survey 1,275 CFOs in the U.S., Europe and Asia was released today. I am the founding director of this quarterly survey and we have been conducting the survey for the past 51 quarters. The survey is unique … Continue reading →

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Posted on December 10, 2008 by camharvey

Brother, Can You Spare a Trillion?

The (in)famous Credit Default Swap (CDS) market provides the market’s best guess that an issuer will default on its debt. A low spread is good. A high spread is bad. Check this out. Campbell Soups’ (no relation!) CDS is less … Continue reading →

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Posted on December 5, 2008 by camharvey

The Helicopter Drop

Image courtesy of flickr/Michael M.

In case you haven’t noticed, we are in a deflation. Over the past four months, the U.S. CPI is running at negative 7% on an annualized basis. While it is true that much of that decrease is a direct result … Continue reading →

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Posted on December 1, 2008 by camharvey

My View on the Bailout de Jour

I appeared on Business News Network November 24, 2008 to talk about how the U.S. tax payer got shafted by the deal to save Citigroup. While there is no doubt that federal intervention was necessary, the terms of the deal … Continue reading →

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Posted on November 25, 2008 by camharvey

The Shroud of Citigroup

Image courtesy of Bill Barfield

Image courtesy of flickr/Bill Barfield It wasn’t that long ago that Citigroup was considered a “good” bank.  Remember October 1, 2008? Citigroup announced it was acquiring Wachovia with the help of the FDIC. You had to be strong to do … Continue reading →

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Posted on November 24, 2008 by camharvey

We Need Another Flip-Flop (Seriously!)

Image courtesy of flickr/The Consumerist

Take Goldman Sachs. Around the time of the TARP equity injection announcement, it was trading for about $120 per share. It is currently below $60. That’s not as serious as some others. Citi’s current market cap is about $25.7 billion … Continue reading →

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Posted on November 20, 2008 by camharvey

A Waste of TARP

Bank of America is making a $7 billion dollar cash investment into China Construction Bank. Bank of America received $15 billion directly from TARP and will get another $10 billion (when they close the Merrill Lynch acquisition at year end). … Continue reading →

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Posted on November 18, 2008 by camharvey

What’s Good for General Motors is Good for the Country

Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons

How ironic. Congress is entertaining a $25 billion bailout of the autos. The President and Secretary of the Treasury are OK with this as long as it doesn’t come out of the $700 billion TARP money. To the average person, … Continue reading →

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Posted on November 17, 2008 by camharvey