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Author Archives: camharvey
One Year After Lehman
There is a lot of finger pointing going on one year after Lehman declared bankruptcy. Most of those fingers are pointing to Lehman and the way the bankruptcy was handled. However, that is a very simplistic view of what happened … Continue reading
Posted in Finance
Tagged Bank failures, Campbell Harvey, FDIC, Financial Crisis, TARP
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The Eye of the Hurricane
Given the decrease job losses and other favorable (or less bad) news, it appears as if the economic storm is abating — or is it the calm that you feel when the eye of the hurricane passes over? There is … Continue reading
Posted in Finance
Tagged Campbell Harvey, CMBS, Prime Mortgages, Recession, Unemployment
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The Prime Dilemma
Just because the unemployment rate dropped from 9.5% to 9.4% does not mean we are out of danger. This is how I think the economy will unfold. The scenario is consistent with what I have been posting for the last … Continue reading
Systemic Risk Factor #1: Jobs
On June 19, 2009, a premiere economic consulting firm (not to be named) forecasted a job loss of 275,000 in June. To me, this seemed odd. The May drop of “only” 345,000 jobs (unrevised) seemed like noisy data. There was … Continue reading
The Fundamentals are Fundamentally Troubling
The Duke-CFO Survey was released today and the news is grim. One of the big challenges is to reconcile the growth in confidence against the hard data. Consumers as well as CFOs are more confident. However, our survey shows that … Continue reading
Moral Hazard Everywhere
Here are my talking points for my Fox Business News interview. Watch my interview. Why should all the bailout money be focused on financial institutions? It is seems a matter of fact but no one has really challenged the logic. … Continue reading
Reflecting on the Stress Tests
Most of the reporting on the stress test focused on the number of banks passing the test and the doable amount of capital the failing banks needed to raise. The tough question was not asked: if the stress test wasn’t … Continue reading
Four interviews
Obama scorecard President Obama means well and is doing a great job in many areas. However, I fear that we are perpetuating the same policies of the previous administration when it comes to the financial sector. It is simply not … Continue reading
Posted in Finance
Tagged Add new tag, Campbell Harvey, Financial Crisis, Stress Test
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Green Shoots and Agent Orange
At best, we have seen a pause in the economic decline. It is too early to call a trough. Surging unemployment will act like Agent Orange on those “green shoots”. While we have every reason to be worried about a … Continue reading
The Public-Private Investment Voodoo
Each of the three programs announced by the Secretary of the Treasury today has the same theme: the private investor has a limited downside and a huge upside – the American taxpayer bears almost all the downside and gets shafted … Continue reading
Posted in Finance
Tagged Campbell Harvey, Financial Crisis, PPIF, PPIP, Public-Private Investment Program, TALF, Treasury
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